Composite Bush Approval Poll

11 / 10 / 2008

Methodology

Bush polls are averaged between the top national non-partisan polls. The ones used are listed in the detail section below. They are averaged to eliminate spikes or valleys by one poll from distorting the national feeling.

Polls are recalculated when either several polls have changed or any poll has changed and several weeks have passed.

Bush polls summary has the poll, the current number, the direction since the last poll and the change, and the date. See the summary section below.

When polls are too old, they are eliminated from the computations, but are listed in their own section for historical interest. Old polls will be re-added for the computations when they are current. See the inactive section for those polls.

Once an average is determine, that one number is kept for historical purposes and for the graph of job approval ratings. The history section includes this number for the past year while the graph goes back to June 2001.

Analysis

CNN has a big drop to 24% after a jump to 28%. Fox also had a drop to 26% after a jump to 29%. NBC had a slight drop to 26%. CBS had a drop to 20%. This is the lowest we've seen and raises the possibility of a "teens" rating.

ABC (23%) was dropped due to the age of their poll. This helps Bush as they are below the average. Time (28%) was also removed. They were one of the highest for Bush so this really hurts his average and mediates the ABC loss. The net results is a new low of 23.63%.

Trends

The record low so far is 23.63% (11 / 10 / 2008).

Over 2 years and 09 months under 40% (from 2/28/06) of sustained ratings.

Over 3 years and 04 months under 45% (from 7/17/05) and

Over 4 years and 09 months under 50% (from 2/16/04) of sustained ratings.

Overall Summary

Category

Percent

Notes

Current average:

24.80%

1.16 lower than last poll (189 points for 08 polls)

Gain/Loss in 2008:

9.38%

January start: 33.00%

After 9/11 drop average:

64.50%

(516 base points for 8 polls)

Just before 9/11 average:

51.75%

621 base point of 12 polls

Just after 9/11 average:

87.41%

1049 base point of 12 polls

9/11 bump:

35.66%

 

Current high poll(s):

26.00%

Fox (11/01) & NBC (11/01)

Current low poll(s):

20.00%

CBS (10/31)

Bush Poll Graphic

Click here for a larger graphic
Bush Poll

Current Poll Summary

Poll

Percent

Change & Date

CBS

20.00%

(-2) 10/31/08

CNN/Opinion Research

24.00%

(-3) 11/06/08

Fox

26.00%

(-2) 11/01/08

Gallup

25.00%

(-0) 10/10/08

LA Times/Bloomberg

23.00%

(+2) 10/10/08

NBC/Wall Street

26.00%

(-1) 11/01/08

Newsweek

23.00%

(-2) 10/22/08

PEW

22.00%

(-5) 10/23/08

Outdated Poll Summary

Poll

Percent

Change & Date

ABC & Washington Post

23.00%

(-3) 10/08/08

AP/Ipsos-Reid/AOL

31.00%

(+3) 07/31/08

Harris

24.00%

(-1) 09/17/08

IBD/CSM

43.00%

(-0) 08/02/04

NPR

33.00%

(-5) 05/07/08

Quinnipiac

30.00%

(+4) 08/12/08

Time

28.00%

(+5) 10/03/08

Zogby/Reuters

25.00%

(+0) 07/09/08

Current Poll Details

Name of poll

Date of poll

Percent

Notes on poll

CBS & NY Times

10/31/08

20%

Approval

10/25/08

22%

 

10/19/08

22%

 

10/10/08

24%

 

Pre-911

50%

(08/28/01)

Post-911

90%

(10/08/01)

03/07/07

30%

Favorability

02/08/07

32%

 

01/18/07

27%

 

CNN/Opinion Research

11/06/08

24%

Approval

10/30/08

28%

 

10/17/08

27%

 

10/03/08

24%

 

Pre-911

--

(n/a)

Post-911

--

(n/a)

09/22/06

46%

Favorability

04/21/06

40%

 

FOX

11/01/08

26%

Approval

10/28/08

29%

 

10/20/08

28%

 

10/08/08

25%

 

Pre-911

55%

(08/22/01)

Post-911

84%

(10/17/01)

04/28/08

35%

Favorability

02/19/08

35%

 

12/18/08

39%

 

Gallup

10/10/08

25%

 

10/03/08

25%

Approval

09/26/08

27%

 

09/08/08

31%

 

Pre-911

51%

(09/07/01)

Post-911

90%

(09/21/01)

04/18/08

32%

Favorability

07/12/07

37%

 

06/01/07

40%

 

LA Times/Bloomberg

10/10/08

23%

Approval

09/19/08

27%

 

08/15/08

25%

 

06/17/08

23%

 

Pre-911

57%

(04/21/01)

Post-911

86%

(11/10/01)

01/15/05

55%

Favorability

08/21/04

53%

 

06/05/04

50%

 

NBC/Wall Street Journal

11/01/08

26%

Approval

10/17/08

27%

 

10/04/08

29%

 

09/19/08

30%

 

Pre-911

50%

(06/23/01)

03/24/08

33%

Fav. (Very & Somewhat)

03/07/08

34%

 

01/20/08

32%

 

Newsweek

10/22/08

23%

Approval

10/08/08

25%

 

07/09/08

28%

 

04/16/08

28%

 

Pre-911

50%

(05/10/01)

Post-911

88%

(10/11/01)

03/05/08

33%

Favorability

10/31/07

34%

 

10/14/04

51%

 

PEW

10/23/08

22%

Approval

10/09/08

25%

 

07/31/08

28%

 

07/23/08

27%

 

Pre-911

51%

(08/21/01)

Post-911

86%

(09/21/01)

Out of date Poll Details

Name of poll

Date of poll

Percent

Notes on poll

ABC/Washington Post

10/08/08

23%

Approval

09/27/08

26%

 

08/19/08

30%

 

07/10/08

28%

 

Pre-911

55%

(09/06/01)

Post-911

92%

(10/08/01)

03/02/06

46%

Favorability

06/02/05

48%

 

10/02/04

53%

 

AP Ipsos-Reid/Cook

07/31/08

31%

Approval

07/10/08

28%

 

06/12/08

29%

 

04/07/08

28%

 

Pre-911

45%

(09/05/01)

Post-911

88%

(11/09/01)

11/04/05

38%

Favorability

10/08/05

41%

 

09/09/05

42%

 

Harris

09/17/08

24%

Approval

08/06/08

25%

 

06/04/08

24%

 

04/02/08

26%

 

Pre-911

52%

(08/15/01)

Post-911

88%

(10/17/01)

Investor's Business Daily/
Christian Science Monitor

08/02/04

43%

Approval

06/01/04

43%

 

06/02/03

57%

 

05/05/03

64%

 

Pre-911

45%

(09/05/01)

Post-911

82%

(10/03/01)

08/02/04

43%

Favorability

06/01/04

42%

 

06/02/03

55%

 

National Public Radio

05/07/08

33%

Approval

01/29/08

38%

 

10/04/07

38%

 

04/26/07

37%

 

Pre-911

N/A

not found

Post-911

N/A

not found

03/19/08

34%

Fav. (very/mostly)

02/20/08

35%

 

01/30/08

34%

 

Quinnipiac University

08/12/08

30%

Approval

07/08/08

26%

 

05/08/08

28%

 

10/23/07

35%

 

Pre-911

N/A

not known

Post-911

N/A

not known

11/13/06

44%

Favorability

08/17/06

46%

 

05/21/06

43%

 

Zogby

07/09/08

25%

Approval

06/12/08

25%

 

05/15/08

23%

 

04/10/08

28%

 

Pre-911

50%

(08/28/01)

Post-911

82%

(09/14/01)

10/20/06

45%

Favorability

10/10/06

47%

 

09/22/06

49%

 

Time

10/03/08

28%

Approval

09/26/08

23%

 

07/31/08

29%

 

04/05/07

33%

 

Pre-911

55%

(07/17/01)

Post-911

89%

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